All-Time 5A Playoff Performance

[WOS87]

The problem with most comparisons of playoff performance through the years is that most people only focus on the round of the playoffs which a team advanced to, automatically ranking the performance of teams that advance to the 3rd or 4th rounds ahead of teams eliminated in the 1st or 2nd rounds. This completely discounts the very real possibility that the true #1 vs #2 matchup occurred in a round earlier than the finals. (In fact, it should happen 50% of the time). I'm in the process of compiling a pretty cool database that will allow me to make a little more thorough comparison but since it's not yet completed this is a preliminary arbitrary ranking I crunched out that had some pretty interesting results.

Looking at every 5A state champion since 1980 and all the teams that were eliminated by the eventual champion from Bi-District through the Finals in each year and in each 5a bracket I came up with a list of only 32 teams that have ever either won the state title or were eliminated by the state champ 3 times or more in the past 26 seasons. I actually thought there would be more than 32 so it kind of surprised me at how short the list actually was.

Ties were broken by combined margin of loss (i.e. SLC zero+1+zero+zero = 1 since they won 3 titles and lost to the eventual champ by 1 point the 4th year. Thus, the lower the number the better.)

Programs Ranked by Total Number of Years as 5A State Champs or being eliminated by one

1. Converse Judson 11 - 75 pts
2. Odessa Permian 10 - 73 pts
3. Plano 7 - 21 pts
4. Midland Lee 7 - 47 pts
5. Lufkin 7 - 82 pts
6. Austin Westlake 7 - 131 pts
7. Katy 6 - 47 pts
8. Euless Trinity 6 - 119 pts
9. Aldine Eisenhower 5 - 76 pts
10. Plano East 5 - 77 pts
11. Southlake Carroll 4 - 1 pt
12. San Antonio Clark 4 - 31 pts
13. Houston Yates 4 - 41 pts
14. Tyler John Tyler 4 - 42 pts
15. Aldine 4 - 50 pts
16. Lake Highlands 4 - 54 pts
17. Duncanville 4 - 71 pts
18. Amarillo 4 - 117 pts
19. Abilene Cooper 4 - 119 pts
20. Tyler Lee 3 - 18 pts
21. Marshall 3 - 21 pts
22. Temple 3 - 28 pts
23. Mesquite 3 - 37 pts
24. The Woodlands 3 - 37 pts
25. South Grand Prairie 3 - 40 pts
26. Arlington Lamar 3 - 45 pts
27. Irving MacArthur 3 - 48 pts
28. Alief Elsik 3 - 52 pts
29. Waco 3 - 58 pts
30. San Angelo Central 3 - 78 pts
31. San Antonio Holmes 3 - 80 pts
32. Allen 3 - 104 pts

Past State Champs that didn't qualify for the list include Beaumont French and West Brook, forfeited champ Dallas Carter, Killeen, 2-time champ Lewisville, SA Roosevelt, Flower Mound Marcus, Garland, and GP North Shore

[BAMF cowboy]

The problem with most comparisons of playoff performance through the years is that most people only focus on the round of the playoffs which a team advanced to, automatically ranking the performance of teams that advance to the 3rd or 4th rounds ahead of teams eliminated in the 1st or 2nd rounds. This completely discounts the very real possibility that the true #1 vs #2 matchup occurred in a round earlier than the finals. (In fact, it should happen 50% of the time). I'm in the process of compiling a pretty cool database that will allow me to make a little more thorough comparison but since it's not yet completed this is a preliminary arbitrary ranking I crunched out that had some pretty interesting results.

Looking at every 5A state champion since 1980 and all the teams that were eliminated by the eventual champion from Bi-District through the Finals in each year and in each 5a bracket I came up with a list of only 32 teams that have ever either won the state title or were eliminated by the state champ 3 times or more in the past 26 seasons. I actually thought there would be more than 32 so it kind of surprised me at how short the list actually was.

Ties were broken by combined margin of loss (i.e. SLC zero+1+zero+zero = 1 since they won 3 titles and lost to the eventual champ by 1 point the 4th year. Thus, the lower the number the better.)

Programs Ranked by Total Number of Years as 5A State Champs or being eliminated by one

1. Converse Judson 11 - 75 pts
2. Odessa Permian 10 - 73 pts
3. Plano 7 - 21 pts
4. Midland Lee 7 - 47 pts
5. Lufkin 7 - 82 pts
6. Austin Westlake 7 - 131 pts
7. Katy 6 - 47 pts
8. Euless Trinity 6 - 119 pts
9. Aldine Eisenhower 5 - 76 pts
10. Plano East 5 - 77 pts
11. Southlake Carroll 4 - 1 pt
12. San Antonio Clark 4 - 31 pts
13. Houston Yates 4 - 41 pts
14. Tyler John Tyler 4 - 42 pts
15. Aldine 4 - 50 pts
16. Lake Highlands 4 - 54 pts
17. Duncanville 4 - 71 pts
18. Amarillo 4 - 117 pts
19. Abilene Cooper 4 - 119 pts
20. Tyler Lee 3 - 18 pts
21. Marshall 3 - 21 pts
22. Temple 3 - 28 pts
23. Mesquite 3 - 37 pts
24. The Woodlands 3 - 37 pts
25. South Grand Prairie 3 - 40 pts
26. Arlington Lamar 3 - 45 pts
27. Irving MacArthur 3 - 48 pts
28. Alief Elsik 3 - 52 pts
29. Waco 3 - 58 pts
30. San Angelo Central 3 - 78 pts
31. San Antonio Holmes 3 - 80 pts
32. Allen 3 - 104 pts

Past State Champs that didn't qualify for the list include Beaumont French and West Brook, forfeited champ Dallas Carter, Killeen, 2-time champ Lewisville, SA Roosevelt, Flower Mound Marcus, Garland, and GP North Shore

okay let me clarify this?

the first number is the number of seasons the given team has either a) won state or b) been eliminated by the state champion

the second number is the total number of points in a teams loss to the eventual state champion

am i correct?

[lonny23]

okay let me clarify this?

the first number is the number of seasons the given team has either a) won state or b) been eliminated by the state champion

the second number is the total number of points in a teams loss to the eventual state champion

am i correct?
Yes, you are correct.

Judson

83, 88, 92, 93, 95, and 02 champs.

82 Beaumont West Brook 27-12
90 Marshall 21-19
96 Lewisville 58-34
98 Duncanville 24-21
05 Trinity 28-14

15 + 2 + 24 + 3 + 14 = 58 points. The 31-14 game vs. Carter should not count to come up with 75 points. Carter never should have been playing in December 1988.

[WOS87]

Yes, you are correct.

Judson

83, 88, 92, 93, 95, and 02 champs.

82 Beaumont West Brook 27-12
90 Marshall 21-19
96 Lewisville 58-34
98 Duncanville 24-21
05 Trinity 28-14

15 + 2 + 24 + 3 + 14 = 58 points. The 31-14 game vs. Carter should not count to come up with 75 points. Carter never should have been playing in December 1988.

Given that CJ would be ranked 1st either way, it doesn't make much of a difference. But it would affect 4 other teams since 5 out of the 6 teams Carter beat on the field in the '88 playoffs are on the above list (Plano East, Lufkin, Marshall, Permian and Judson) so *officially* that's one less for all of them except Judson. And one more for San Antonio Clark who lost to Judson in the 3rd round.

[badger95]

That is super cool!

Am I right in assuming that Westlake has lost to more eventual State Champs than any others on that list?

[dragonsdaddy]

since i put a lot of stock in a win vs a loss, i might take this system 1 step further and count the state titles by 2. coming in second should be as profitable as dating the homecoming queen. some teams i see pretty high on the list got the privilege of playing judson, plano, or operm quite often. not the same as beating them 1-2 times.

[lonny23]

since i put a lot of stock in a win vs a loss, i might take this system 1 step further and count the state titles by 2. coming in second should be as profitable as dating the homecoming queen. some teams i see pretty high on the list got the privilege of playing judson, plano, or operm quite often. not the same as beating them 1-2 times.
I agree with that. That's why I used a point system for each round a while back to determine the best teams in the last 6 years, but a great addition to it would be the success of the team you lost to in the playoffs.

[Red Raiders]

Getting 5 State Champions from Tyler for ONLY 2 Schools which is a very hard chance.

[badger95]

Getting 5 State Champions from Tyler for ONLY 2 Schools which is a very hard chance.

huh?

[svhorns]

is there a prize involved?

[Plano Wildcat Fan]

Neat stat.

Someone has way to much time on their hands to review 26 years of football playoff brackets.:)

[drgnbkr]

It does not compute that a team be given any credit beyond that achieved on the field of play simply because they lost to the eventual champion. No logic to it whatsoever...IMO

[badger95]

I bet you'd say different had your boys lost 3 out of 4 instead of winning 3 out of 4.

[insider]

I bet you'd say different had your boys lost 3 out of 4 instead of winning 3 out of 4.
Given that this is merely a poll and not a true 'championship' mythical or otherwise, I would think people would not argue too much. The discussion on weighting (wins versus losses, round lost, etc.) might be useful to improve the 'poll' and permit 'intellectual' comparisons (at most).

For actual success - the field of play beckons.

[drgnbkr]

I bet you'd say different had your boys lost 3 out of 4 instead of winning 3 out of 4.

Not really, if you lose you bow out at that point and receive due credit for making it that far. In the 98 4-A semis Carroll lost to Stephenville in a close game. Everyone felt that either Carroll or Stephenville would have won the next game, which Stephenville did, handily. Carroll does'nt deserve anymore credit than being the Semifinal loser deserves. Carroll lost in 03 to Katy...there should not be any further credit than being a finalist in the State Championship Game. All IMO

[panamamyers]

This is a pretty cool idea. The only problem I see is the same as has been alluded to already. Let's say Judson plays some crappy San Benito team in the second round every year and pastes them 63-7 every year that they went on to get a state championship. I don't think San Benito has any claim to anything.

Maybe if there were some sort or more complex algorithm involved. Like, they had to stay within a certain number of points of the eventual state champion. Maybe a sliding scale, whereas the more points you got beat by the state champion the deeper into the playoffs you had to have been for that one to count in your favor.

Anyone can go in and get beat by the state champion. I could take a 7th grade B team here and get beat by Southlake Carroll 4 years in a row. Then all the sudden I'm on this list? That's a problem. But, overall a nice list to look at.

[lonny23]

It does not compute that a team be given any credit beyond that achieved on the field of play simply because they lost to the eventual champion. No logic to it whatsoever...IMO
The value is that you lost to the best. You hate to lose, but you want your program to get to the point that you're a Tier 1 team and only lose to other Tier 1 teams. In the interim, you need to advance from being a Tier 3, bit playoff team, to a Tier 2 team who wins, but not enough.

[lonny23]

This is a pretty cool idea. The only problem I see is the same as has been alluded to already. Let's say Judson plays some crappy San Benito team in the second round every year and pastes them 63-7 every year that they went on to get a state championship. I don't think San Benito has any claim to anything.

Maybe if there were some sort or more complex algorithm involved. Like, they had to stay within a certain number of points of the eventual state champion. Maybe a sliding scale, whereas the more points you got beat by the state champion the deeper into the playoffs you had to have been for that one to count in your favor.

Anyone can go in and get beat by the state champion. I could take a 7th grade B team here and get beat by Southlake Carroll 4 years in a row. Then all the sudden I'm on this list? That's a problem. But, overall a nice list to look at.
I can see that. That kind of stuff is already figured into the power ratings we see for teams each year.

[drgnbkr]

The value is that you lost to the best. You hate to lose, but you want your program to get to the point that you're a Tier 1 team and only lose to other Tier 1 teams. In the interim, you need to advance from being a Tier 3, bit playoff team, to a Tier 2 team who wins, but not enough.

I still don't see how a 3rd place district team getting beat by Katy in the first round entitles them to any other reward than simply making the playoffs, even if Katy goes all the way.

[lonny23]

I still don't see how a 3rd place district team getting beat by Katy in the first round entitles them to any other reward than simply making the playoffs, even if Katy goes all the way.
It's everything. You were right that you get respect for what round you get beat in, but you also deserve credit for how tough the opponent was and how well you played vs. them.

[drgnbkr]

It's everything. You were right that you get respect for what round you get beat in, but you also deserve credit for how tough the opponent was and how well you played vs. them.

OK..I'm cool...:D

[svhorns]

This is a pretty cool idea. The only problem I see is the same as has been alluded to already. Let's say Judson plays some crappy San Benito team in the second round every year and pastes them 63-7 every year that they went on to get a state championship. I don't think San Benito has any claim to anything.

Maybe if there were some sort or more complex algorithm involved. Like, they had to stay within a certain number of points of the eventual state champion. Maybe a sliding scale, whereas the more points you got beat by the state champion the deeper into the playoffs you had to have been for that one to count in your favor.

Anyone can go in and get beat by the state champion. I could take a 7th grade B team here and get beat by Southlake Carroll 4 years in a row. Then all the sudden I'm on this list? That's a problem. But, overall a nice list to look at.
San Benito would beat judson... just tryin to give them a little bit of credit

[WOS87]

It's everything. You were right that you get respect for what round you get beat in, but you also deserve credit for how tough the opponent was and how well you played vs. them.

Like I said in the original post, it is still a work in progress and the above was just compiled as a preliminary experiment.

I guess the idea originated back from the 1980 Permian - Sherman Bi-district game which ended in a 0 - 0 tie. Permian advanced and went on to dominate Richland, Amarillo and Highland Park in the next three rounds and beat Pt Arthur Jefferson by 9 pts in the finals but Sherman will always be remembered as being knocked out of the playoffs in Bi-District, rather than arguably having the 2nd best playoff showing in the state that year.

One algorithm I have in the works gives a point for each round that a team advances but also gives an equivalent point value according to how well the team that knocked them off did. Thus, in a 64 team bracket, all 6 teams that play the eventual champ get 7 pts, the 5 teams that play the finalist get 6, the teams that play the 2 semifinals losers get 5 and so on... and then 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 added to that depending on which round they lost in. The Champ would receive 7 + 7 = 14pts. And there are an infinite number of variations including factoring in margin of victory, which is a necessity for the multiple reasons elicited above by various responders. More to come...

[WOS87]

That is super cool!

Am I right in assuming that Westlake has lost to more eventual State Champs than any others on that list?

Most definitely, because they lost to at least two more eventual champs while in 4A in 1990 and 1991 so that's 8 times total losing to the eventual champ and 1 time actually as champ in a 14 season span (1990-2003).

[dragonsdaddy]

Most definitely, because they lost to at least two more eventual champs while in 4A in 1990 and 1991 so that's 8 times total losing to the eventual champ and 1 time actually as champ in a 14 season span (1990-2003).
man, i'd leave that little gem off my resume, imo. it does say something about the program, or the rest of the region, or something, but not what i want to brag about.

[dragonsdaddy]

Like I said in the original post, it is still a work in progress and the above was just compiled as a preliminary experiment.

I guess the idea originated back from the 1980 Permian - Sherman Bi-district game which ended in a 0 - 0 tie. Permian advanced and went on to dominate Richland, Amarillo and Highland Park in the next three rounds and beat Pt Arthur Jefferson by 9 pts in the finals but Sherman will always be remembered as being knocked out of the playoffs in Bi-District, rather than arguably having the 2nd best playoff showing in the state that year.

One algorithm I have in the works gives a point for each round that a team advances but also gives an equivalent point value according to how well the team that knocked them off did. Thus, in a 64 team bracket, all 6 teams that play the eventual champ get 7 pts, the 5 teams that play the finalist get 6, the teams that play the 2 semifinals losers get 5 and so on... and then 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 added to that depending on which round they lost in. The Champ would receive 7 + 7 = 14pts. And there are an infinite number of variations including factoring in margin of victory, which is a necessity for the multiple reasons elicited above by various responders. More to come...as the infamously brilliant gerald ford once stated during a presidential debate, "i didn't know there was going to be any math involved". it will , or could get complicated enough that few will be able to question the results, but keep up the good work anyway.