Pearland Defense: Regular Season vs. Playoffs

Here in the 5A statistics department, we’re always looking for correlations between our numbers and what happens on the field.  One such correlation that we’ve been closely monitoring for years is how defensive success translates to state championships. Since 2006, we’ve studied, tweaked, tested and now publish an adjusted defensive scoring metric we use to rank all 245 defenses throughout each season.  We choose to use this metric over points against per game (PAPG) because it allows us to factor in things like schedule strength which is essential in determining true defensive strength. In studying our data from 2006 – 2009 (4 seasons), we found that all eight state champions held their opponents to an average of at least ten points below their scoring average.  Since we’re still dealing with a relatively small sample size, we realized that our criteria would eventually be stretched. Keeping this in mind for 2010, the Division 1 Region 3 bracket featured Katy, North Shore, and Houston Lamar who all met this criteria during the regular season.  The eventual state champion Pearland Oilers barely kept their head above water on the defensive end with a very average adjusted defensive scoring rating of -1.2 (table 1). Table 1:  2010 Pearland Oilers – Regular Season Results Read More …

Five Years of Dominance: State Champions

In 2006, 5ATexasFootball.com started calculating adjusted scoring offense and defense ratings for every 5A program. The adjusted ratings put individual and collective game results into perspective relative to a team’s competition. The effects cascade even further into opponents’ opponents and beyond until virtually every team in the state can be linked numerically to varying degrees. The dominance index combines the adjusted offense and defense numbers to show which teams have the strongest overall bodies of work. Our forum community has long debated the strength of past state champions versus each other.  While no one can definitively say what would happen in a one-game scenario between any of them, we can compare their overall bodies of work through the dominance rating (Table 1). Table 1:  State Champion Season Dominance ratings This doesn’t necessarily mean that 2010 Pearland (22.98) would lose to 2007 Katy (36.43).  What this means is that 2007 Katy dominated their opponents from start to finish more than any team in the last five seasons (including non-state champs).  We are all fully aware and understand that anything can happen on any given day. However, it is interesting to note that if I did rank the previous state champions based Read More …

Inside the Box: Week 0

One of the first things we do each Friday, Saturday, and Sunday morning is read through every box score we can find from the previous night’s action.  This gives us a good base to work from before starting the evaluation process each week. If random thoughts filled with statistics are your thing, you’ve chosen to kill some time on the right feature.  You might even pick up some knowledge that you can impress with at your next tailgate. Region 1: – El Paso Americas star RB Jack Fields (Boise St.) logged 40 carries for 190 yards in their opening victory over El Paso Andress (4A).  That’s quite the work-load. – Duncanville moved up and down the field against Heritage, but drive after drive was killed by fumbles (2), interceptions (2), missed field goal (1), and turnover on downs (2). Only lost by seven should be considered a minor victory.  They’re a dangerous team if they can clean it up. – Keller Central senior WR and Baylor commit Zach Sanchez showed his explosiveness with a 4 catch, 185 yard, 3 TD performance in a win over Carrollton Newman Smith (4A).  Central is a group we’ve had our eye on to nab Read More …

Inside the Box: Week 2

One of the first things we do each Friday, Saturday, and Sunday morning is read through every box score we can find from the previous night’s action.  This gives us a good base to work from before starting the evaluation process each week. If random thoughts filled with statistics are your thing, you’ve chosen to kill some time on the right feature.  Here’s a look back at Week 2′s action before we head into Week 3 tomorrow. Region 1: – 1-5A opened up district play this week with all home teams taking the Ws.  The highlight of the action was El Paso Times’ #1 Americas @ #2 Franklin.  Americas jumped out to a 10-0 lead, but Franklin responded with 21 straight.  Although Americas would eventually retake the lead, Franklin finished it off with 2:35 remaining, 28-25. – You can’t ask for a better performance from a quarterback in a big-time road game than what Alabama commit and Allen QB Alec Morris gave you this weekend against Longview (25-35, 365 yards, 5 TDs, 0 ints).  Roll Tide. – It took the Mansfield Timberview Wolves all of three weeks to match last season’s win total of three.  The most impressive of the Read More …

Inside The Box: Week 3

If random thoughts filled with statistics are your thing, you’ve chosen to kill some time on the right feature. Here’s a look back at Week 3′s abbreviated action thanks to “bye” weeks across the great state of Texas. Region 1: – We’ve brought up El Paso Americas’ Jack Fields (Boise St.) in this space before and he has given us reason to do it again…336 yards rushing and 3 tds against El Paso Coronado.  He scored on three runs of 50+ yards, including one from 96 yards out. – Franklin, El Dorado and Americas look like the early front-runners in District 1 with Franklin having a slight edge.  Franklin, 2-0 in district, has a big three-point win over Americas on the resume already. – In last week’s Inside The Box, we pointed out how lopsided Trinity’s box score was.  Somehow, they may have topped that with this week’s effort.  Trinity won 64-0 against Irving despite a running 2nd half clock (weather delay), nor attempting a pass.  12 players logged carries for the Trojans, with eight of them scoring a touchdown.  That may be a first in Texas High School football? – If Irving MacArthur and Irving Nimitz qualify for the Read More …

Inside The Box: Week 4

If random thoughts filled with statistics are your thing, you’ve chosen to kill some time on the right feature.  Get caught up on Week 4 before we kickoff Week 5 tomorrow. Region 1: – Anyone that didn’t expect Colleyville Heritage to give the Euless Trinity Trojans a game hasn’t been paying attention lately.  Heritage came in as the #21 ranked team in the state, a defense that is playing well and a junior QB in Cody Thomas that has been lighting up folks.  The four turnovers by Heritage really allowed a great opportunity to slip through their hands. – Arlington has an offense capable of putting up big numbers, but 12 turnovers in four games has resulted in a 1-3 record so far.  Needless to say, they need to figure out how to protect the ball quickly with Arlington Martin on the schedule this weekend. – Mansfield and local rival Timberview played one of the best games of the young season.  Despite a 21-10 lead late into the 3rd quarter for Timberview, Mansfield took a 23-21 lead with 3:45 remaining.  Timberview hit back with a great drive and touchdown of their own to take a 27-23 lead with just 40 Read More …

Inside The Box: Week 5

If random thoughts filled with statistics are your thing, you’ve chosen to kill some time on the right feature.  Get caught up on Week 5′s highlights before we kickoff Week 6 tomorrow. Region 1: – Last week’s entry… “Southlake Carroll escaped with a 2-point win over Keller Fossil Ridge this week.  The Dragons need to take a long hard look at what’s happening during the second half.  In the last two second-halves, the Dragons have scored a total of three points.” … make that a total of three points in the last three second-halves. – Trinity losing at the half, 11-6, to Hurst Bell? Didn’t see that one coming.  Neither did senior RB Joel Kimpela and he wasn’t happy about it.  Kimpela responded with a monster second half to finish the game with 306 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns. – Credit to Denton Guyer for coming out of a long rain-delay ready to play.  When the two teams retired to their respective locker rooms near the end of the first quarter due to lightning, it looked like the game was shaping up to be one that would go down to the wire.  However, Guyer came out of the locker room Read More …

Inside The Box – Week 6

If random thoughts filled with statistics are your thing, you’ve chosen to kill some time on the right feature.  Even if it’s not your thing, there’s a 100% chance that you might like it. Region 1: – Arlington Martin was upset by Arlington to the tune of 47-16 one week ago.  This week, they took out their frustrations on Arlington Sam Houston in a 72-7 win.  They led 65-0 at the half. – Mansfield Timberview continues to be a team that is flying under the radar at 1-2 in district, but keep an eye on the Wolves.  Their two district losses are to Mansfield (6-0) by 2 and Cedar Hill by 6.  They beat South Grand Prairie by 25 last weekend.  Their pre-district resume includes wins over Arlington Lamar and Arlington. – Staying in Mansfield, Legacy has a sophomore back named Kijana Amous who has emerged this season. Not only does he have a great name, he has carried the ball 120 times for 798 yards and 3 touchdowns through six games. – Hurst Bell put up a 29-point 3rd quarter after being down 17-14 at the half against Irving MacArthur.  Now at 3-2 in district, that could turn out Read More …

Inside The Box – Week 7

If random thoughts filled with statistics are your thing, you’ve chosen to kill some time on the right feature. Even if it’s not your thing, there’s a 100% chance that you might like it. Region 1: – EP Montwood junior QB Angel Garcia threw for 383 yards and 7 touchdowns in their 56-31 win over EP Coronado.  A great performance considering Montwood (4-1) was without one of their best players in Ebrahim Britton.  Both Garcia and Britton are expected to be healthy for the big showdown with Americas (4-1) this week. – Arlington Lamar defeated Arlington Bowie in a 21-20 classic that came down to a missed extra point with 3:41 left in the game.  Both exchanged 14-0 quarters in the middle of the game.  Despite picking up 23 first downs to Lamar’s 13, all-state RB Russell Hansbrough was limited to 69 yards on 19 carries, while Kolby Listenbee was limited to 71 yards on 23 carries. – Arlington’s Tavarreon Dickerson had a quick and efficient day in a 56-0 win over Arlington Sam Houston.  7 carries for 173 yards (24.7 yds/car) and 2 touchdowns. – Mansfield Timberview held Grand Prairie to -7 yards rushing on 31 carries.  That’s how Read More …

Inside The Box: Week 8

If random thoughts filled with statistics are your thing, you’ve chosen to kill some time on the right feature. Even if it’s not your thing, there’s a 100% chance that you might like it. We’re going to have an abbreviated version these last couple regular season weeks due to time spent on upcoming playoff coverage. Region 1: – Arlington Martin pulled back into a three-way tie (with Lamar and Arlington) for the 4-5A title following Friday’s 41-20 win over Arlington Lamar.  To recap the district title challengers:  Arlington beat Martin by 31, but lost to Lamar by 17;  Lamar beat Arlington by 17, but lost to Martin by 21;  Martin Beat Lamar by 21, but lost to Arlington by 31.  Such has been life in 4-5A this year… – Mansfield Timberview entered the 4th quarter down 21-17 to Duncanville, but responded by outscoring the Panthers 22-7 in the final quarter.  This is a team that will give someone a sweat in the playoffs. – We spoke of Cedar Hill’s explosiveness last week and their need to contain Mansfield RB Kenneth Burks.  The Longhorn did just that by limiting Burks to only 64 yards rushing.  The Longhorns’ explosiveness was on display Read More …