Predicting The Brackets
By 5ATexasFootball.com on Nov 11, 2010 with Comments 1
We recently ran the every game in the Division 1 and Division 2 brackets through our statistical predictor in an attempt to project the eventual state champions.
Click here for the results: DIVISION 1 | DIVISION 2
A Little Background
The predictor uses every score from every game this season to mathematically predict future outcomes. Points scored, points against, adjusted offensive scoring, and adjusted defensive scoring are a few of the metrics used in the formula. Over the years, we’ve tweaked this formula to emphasize certain statistics that we think are more important to winning football games on the 5A level.
Let’s take a look at how the predictor has performed this season…
| 5ATXFB Predictor Performance (2010 Season) | ||||
| Point Spreads | ||||
| Overall | 0-3 | 4 - 10 | 11 – 17 | 18+ |
| 78% | 50% | 62% | 82% | 96% |
What this tell us: The predictor has correctly projected the outcome (win/loss) of 78% of all games games. Games that are projected at a margin of 3 points or less are considered an even matchup statistically…a “coin toss”. The predictor’s results reflect exactly that with a 50% success rate. As the projected margin grows, so does the predictor’s success rate.
alright fellow HS football junkies. who has the scoop on converse judson? So So record and squeeze into the playoff bracket and then knock Madison out.